WritingsinterviewsKrisis sa Ukraine: Paano iintindihin?

Krisis sa Ukraine: Paano iintindihin?

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Krisis sa Ukraine: Paano iintindihin?
Mga katanungan mula sa Paaralang JMS at BAYAN
Mga sagot ni Prop. Jose Maria
Chairperson Emeritus, International League of Peoples’ Struggle
March 6, 2022

English version

  1. Maaari po ba kayo magbigay ng maikling pasada ng mga mahahalagang kaganapan sa Ukraine at papaano ito humantong sa kasalukuyan? Ano ang kalagayan nito sa panahon ng USSR at sa panahon ng kapitalistang panunumbalik hanggang malusaw ang USSR?

JMS: Unahin kong sagutin ang ikalawang tanong. Bunga ng Rebolusyong Oktubre ng 1917 ang pagtatayo ng modernong estado ng Ukraine. Si Lenin at mga Bolsebiko ang nagtayo nito. Sa panahon ng USSR, ang tawag sa Ukraine ay isa sa tatlong buod na republika ng USSR dahil isa siya sa tatlong republikang Sobyet na nagpundar sa USSR noong 1922 nang manalo ang mga Bolsebiko sa Gera Sibil magmula noong Oktubre 1917.

Nanatiling republika ng USSR ang Ukraine habang sosyalista ito sa panahon ni Lenin at Stalin at kahit na sa panahon na napailalim ang USSR sa makabagong rebisyonismo at pagpapanumbalik ng kapitalismo magmula 1956 hanggang lusawin ang USSR noong 1991.

Ang Ukraine ay isa sa tatlong buod na republika ng USSR na nagkasundo at lumagda sa Minsk Agreement ng 1991 na lumikida o lumusaw sa buong USSR para matapos ang Cold War, bumalik ang Rusya sa tahanang Europeano, umasa ang ilusyon na makinabang sa kapayapaan at tumbasan ang pangako ng US, NATO at Organization of Security and Cooperation sa Europa (OSCE) na huwag gawing kasapi ng NATO ang mga dating kasapi ng Warsaw Pact na kakontra ng NATO.

  1. Ano ang NATO? Bakit ito nabuo at ano ang papel na ginagampanan nito sa Ukraine? Ano ang kasaysayan ng panghihimasok ng US at NATO sa Ukraine?

JMS: Sa World War II, sinalakay ng Nazing Alemanya ang Silangang Europa at Rusya pero nananaig ang Rusya at gumawa ng strategic counteroffensive na umabot sa Berlin. Ito ang pangunahing pwersa na gumapi sa mga Nazi at iba pang pasista. At naitayo ang ilan pang dumagdag na bansang sosyalista sa Silangang Europa. Segundaryo sa importansya ang counteroffensive ng US at UK mula sa Normandy.

Matapos ang World War II galit ang US at iba pang bansang kapitalista na lumawak ang saklaw ng sosyalismo sa Europa. Bagamat magkaalyado ang US at Russia sa World War II, nagdeklara ng anti-communist Cold War ang US laban sa USSR noong 1948 at nagbuo ng NATO para salungatin ang USSR noong 1949. Noon lang 1955 nagbuo ang USSR at mga alyadong bansa sa Silangang Europa ng military alliance sa balangkas ng Warsaw Pact.

Salungat sa mga pangako ng US, NATO at OSCE sa Minsk Agreement ng 1991 na hindi magkakaroon ng NATO expansion na gawing miyembro ang mga dating miyembro ng Warsaw Pact at huwag tumbukin ang mga border ng Rusya, winarat at sinira ng US at NATO ang Yugoslavia, nangalap ng 14 na bansang dating nasa Warsaw Pact at pumalibot sa USSR, nagtayo ang US at NATO ng mga missile at anti-missile system na nakatutok sa Rusya, gumawa ng mga gulo sa ilang dating bahagi ng USSR tulad ng Georgia at Chechnya at naglunsad ng mga tinaguriang color revolution para guluhin ang palibot ng Rusya.

Dahil sa mahabang kasaysayan at mahalagang papel ng Ukraine sa USSR, matagal ding bago magkaroon ng pagkakataon ang US at NATO para kabigin ito sa NATO. Pero sa 2013 nagamit ng US at NATO ang Bandera party, National Socialist Party of Ukraine, para gumawa ng mga protestang Maidan na nagsimula hanggang umabot sa madugong kudeta na nagbagsak sa maka-Rusyang gobyerno ni Victor Yanukovich. Magmula sa kudeta, nagkaroon ng pangunahing impluwensiya ang US at NATO sa Ukraine sa pamamagitan ng mga Ukrainian na anti-Ruso, sobinista at pasista. Ayon kay Victoria Nuland na Amerikanang estratehista, gumastos ang US ng USD 5 bilyun para baguhin ang kalagayan sa Ukraine at maging anti-Rusya, maka-US at maka-NATO ang gobyerno..

Inapi ng mga Ukrainian na pasista na tipong Bandera na neo-Nazi ang mga Rusong kababayan nila. Gumawa ng mga masaker ang neo-Nazi na Azov Battallion, milisya na nasa hanay ng home guards ng hukbo ng Ukraine. Minorya ang mga Ruso sa kabuaan ng populasyon ng Ukraine. Noong 2014 mga 22 per cent sila. Karamihan nito ay nasa rehyion ng Donbass at sa mga mayor na lungsod dahil sa pasimuno sila sa pagtatayo ng mga industriya sa Ukraine sa panahon ng USSR. Mga 6 percent lamang sa kanila ang nasa kanayunan.

Pero mayorya ang mga Ruso sa Donbass region dahil sa panahon pa lang ni Catherine the Great saklaw ng Rusya ang Donbass region. Nanatiling ganito hanggang panahon ng USSR. Magmula 2014, sinalakay ang mga tao rito ng mga pasistang awtoridad ng Kyiv at nanggaling din mula sa Kharkiv region na balwarte ng mga tropa at bihilanteng pasista. Lumaban naman ang mga taga-Donbass hanggang nagtayo sila ng mga people’s republic ng Donetsk at Luhansk sa prinsipyo ng national self-determination.

Nagbigay ang Rusya ng tulong sa mga taga-Donbass pero limitado. Ang pinakamalaking ginawa ng Rusya sa taon ng 2014 ay binawi niya ang Crimea sa pamamagitan ng malaking mayorya ng mga Ruso sa Crimea at sa pamamagitan ng isang referendum. Talagang teritoryo ng Rusya ang Crimea bago inagaw ng mga Tatar at mga Ruso ng Rusya ang sumipa sa kapangyarihan ng mga Tatar. Pero si Khrushcov noong 1954 irinegalo niya ang Crimea sa Ukraine para magkaroon ito ng access o outlet sa Black Sea.

Bunga ng pakikibaka ng mga Rusong mayorya sa Donbass, nagkaroon ng Minsk Agreement II noong 2015. Naglalaman ito ng pagkilala sa mga people’s republic bilang autonomous governments, pagkakaroon ng ceasefire at pagtatakda ng line of contact na hindi pwedeng lampasan ng pwersang Ukrainian at hindi rin pwedeng pagdalhan ng malalakas na artillery at iba pang sandata.

Pero kahit merong Minsk Agreement II, laging linalabag ng mga awtoridad at mga pasista ng Ukraine ito. At sa taong 2021 maliwanag na may blitzkrieg plan ng Kyiv laban sa Don bass region at tumindi ang tulak ng US sa gobyernong Ukraine na sumapi na sa NATO. Sa mga nakaraang taon, ilinagay ang pwersang militar ng Ukraine sa ilalim ng command at kontrol ng NATO, nagtayo ng mga military base at surveillance posts sa mga border ng Russia. Dahil dito magmula Disyembre 2021 humingi si Putin ng further security guarantees mula sa US at NATO.

Tumanggi ang mga ito. Ang resulta, kinilala ng Russia ang dalawang people’s republics ng Donetsk at Lugansk at gumawa sila ng tratado ng friendship, mutual security and defense. At sinunggaban ng Russia ng special military operations ang planong blitzkrieg ng Kyiv laban sa Donbass para iproboka ang Russia. Inanunsyo kaagad ng Rusiya na layunin nilang sirain ang military sites sa Ukraine at walang intensyon na okupahin ang Ukraine at salakayin ang mga sibilyan at civilian infrastructure.

  1. Sa inyong palagay, ano ang pangmatagalang layunin ng US-Nato sa Rusya?

JMS: Gustong tiyakin ng US-NATO na takutin ang Russia na mauunahan at madudurog ito sa world war o nuclear war kung maging imminent o mangyayari na. Bobo ang strategic line na ito dahil sa naging kapitalista na ang Rusya at siya mismo tuwang-tuwa na masali sa Council of Europe at tumanggap ng investments. Hinayaan niya rin na pumasok ang foreign investments at trade mula sa Kanluran at maging dominant ang Western capital sa Kazakhstan, laluna sa extractive industries o exploitation of natural resources.

Kung tutukan mo ng punyal ang leeg ng Russia darating ang panahon na magalit ito. Pero matutuwa ang mga Rusong oligarko pati si Putin kung pakitahan mo ng pera o investments matutuwa. Hindi nakapalag agad ang Russia sa NATO expansion dahil sa nanghina siya sa USSR collapse sa dekada ng mga 1990. Pero sa kalaunan umayos sa ilalim ng liderato ni Putin dahil sa high oil income na tumaas at inayos din ang food production.

Si George Kennan na longtime na anti-Soviet strategist ng US tuwang-tuwa sa Minsk Agreement ng 1991 dahil sa tinapos nito ang Cold War. Bago siya yumao, tutul na tutol siya sa NATO expansion. Ang gusto niya at iba pang US strategists ay capital expansion at paggamit ng EU membership para sa former Warsaw Pact countries imbes na NATO membership.

Pero sa deep state at policy-making bodies sa US may mga strategists tulad ni Victoria Nuland na maka-Democrat na gawing garapal ang NATO expansion para ipaggumiit ang US command at leadership ng US sa NATO at Europa kaysa sa pabayaan ang European Union na maging economically at politically closer sa Russia, at maging dependent ang Germany at iba pang EU countries sa gas supply mula sa Russia.

  1. Sa imperyalistang propaganda, ang ginawang military action ng Rusya ay isang ‘invasion’ . Bilang isang bansang impryalista, ano ang inyong pagtingin sa naging hakbang ng Rusya sa Ukraine?

JMS: May mga connotation ang salitang invasion, tulad ng unjust war of aggression at occupation. Pero sinabi ni Putin antemano noong Pebrero 21 na ang layunin ng special military operation ay sirain ang military capabilities ng Ukraine, tulungan ang mga kinilalang people’s republic sa Donbass at iwasan ang pagbira sa mga civilian at civilian infrastructure.

Pero huwag nating kalimutan at hayaang matakpan ang tuluy-tuloy na pagsalakay ng mga pasista ng Ukraine sa Donbass region na lumabag sa Minsk Agreement II, nagresulta sa pagpatay ng 14,000 Ruso magmula 2014 at sa pagpa-palayas ng mga 3 milyung Ukraine-born Russian mula sa Ukraine. Kasama ang Ukraine, Rusya at OSCE sa Minsk Agreement II. At puede pang punahin o kondenahin si Putin na hindi kumilos nang walong taon bago naglunsad ng special military operation, imbes na akusahan siyang aggressor o invader at Great Russian expansionist.

Sa kabila nito, merong palatandaan na gustong kunin ang Kyiv para ibagsak ang gobyerno ni Zelensky at parusahan ang mga pinakamabagsik na Bandera-type fascists sa Kharkiv area. Kinuha na ng Rusya ang Kherson sa Timog para harangin ang Ukraine mula sa dagat at puede niyand atekehin ang Odessa. Kaya ng Rusya na durugin ang mga government building sa Kyiv sa pamamagitan ng mga missile pero hindi gagawin ito na walang evacuation corridor para sa mga sibilyan ng Kyiv. May dalawang rounds of peace talks na habang ang special military operaion ay pumasok na sa Plan B at ikalawang linggo na nito.

  1. Ano ang katangian ng kasalukuyang pamahalaan ng Ukraine? Ano ang katangian ng pasismo o pagiging neo-nazi ng Ukraine at paano ito naiba sa panahon ni Hitler. (Magandang makapaglinaw dito dahil itinanggi ng Pangulo ng Ukraine na si Zerensky na siya ay Nazi, at jewish ang kanyang angkan na namatay sa Holocaust).

JMS: Sa panahon ng madugong kudeta noong 2014, mapagpasiya ang papel ng mga Bandera-type na neo-Nazi o pasista, ang National Socialist Party of Ukraine at Azofv Battalion nio. Pati na sa masaker ng mga karaniwang Ruso sa mga apartment at komunidad nila. Mga Bandera-type fascists ay mga political descendant ng mga Ukrainians na ginamit ng Nazi Germany sa World War II para sakupin ang Ukraine at salakayin ang Russia.

Totoong Jewish si Zelensky. Pero ito naman ay Zionist fascist na nagagamit ng US at NATO. Dapat tandaan natin na malaki ang papel ng mga Zionist fascist sa pagyabong ng makabagong rebisyonismo, panunumbalik ng kapitalismo at paglago ng oligarkiyang kapitalista sa dating USSR pati na Rusya, Ukraine at Belarus.. Magmula nang kumampi ang USSR sa mga Arabo at Palestina laban sa Israel sa Middle East, marami sa mga Jews na nasa intellectual cream ng USSR ang naging Zionist fascist at naging promotor at kakampi ng mga rebisyonista laban sa sosyalismo at pananatili ng USSR.

  1. Ano ang interes ng mga malalaking imperyalistang kapangyarihan sa Ukraine? Ano ang pakinabang ng US at iba pang western powers dito? At ano naman ang pakinabang ng Rusya sa Ukraine? Ano ang papel na ginagampanan ng Ukraine sa kasalukuyang pandaigdigang sistemang kapitalista?

JMS: Malaki ang halaga ng Ukraine sa US at NATO geopoliticallly at economically. Isa ito sa three core republics ng dating USSR at kadikit territorially ng Russia at Belarus na may post-USSR State of Union dahil tinatarget din ng US at NATO ang Belarus. Malawak ang agrikultura ng Ukraine, dating tawag dito ay wheat breadbasket ng Europe at pagkatapos breadbasket ng USSR. Mayaman din sa ilang strategic mineral resources tulad ng iron ore, coal, natural gas, manganese, salt, oil, graphite, sulfur, kaolin, titanium, nickel, magnesium, timber at mercury.

Nakapagtayo rin ng mga batayan at abanteng industriya sa panahon ng USSR. Pero marami rito ang pinabayaan tulad ng paggawa ng asero, machine tools, mga mayor na sandata, mga traktora, eroplano at barko dahil sa mga oligarko at mga konsumidor napahilig sa made in the USA at made in Western Europe. Pati sa Russia naman, marunong nang gumawa ng mga traktora ang mga Ruso bago pa rebolusyon ng Oktubre 1917 pero nang umalagwa ang capitalist restoration mas gustong mag-import ng Caterpillar tractors.

Isang malaking galit ng Rusya sa Ukraine ay matapos ang paghiwalay niya sa USSR pinautangan pa ni Putin ng USD 15 billion to fix its economy at patuloy na kumikita ng mga mga USD 3 billion annually mula sa paggamit ng Russia sa gas pipeline na tumatawid sa Ukraine. Pero nagamit pa rin ng US at NATO ang mga pasista para baguhin ang relasyon ng Ukraine at Russia na umabot na kasalukuyang kalagayan ng armadong tunggalian.

  1. Ano ang panandalian at pangmatagalang epekto ng sigalot sa Ukraine? Ano ang magiging epekto nito sa pagitan ng mga imperyalistang kapangyarihan? Partikular sa pagitan ng US, Rusya at Tsina? Ano ang epekto nito sa mga estadong neokolonyal at mga bayang gumigiit ng kanilang pambansang kasarinlan?

JMS: Batay sa immediate circumstances, lamang na lamang ang Russia sa mga pasista ng Ukraine laluna sa punto ng pagsira sa existing military capabilities ng Ukraine. Nagkakabisa ang special military operatin ng Russia at nagreresulta ng tuwirang peace talks ng Russia at Ukraine. Tingnan nating saan aabutin ng special operation at peace at peace talks.

Pero pinapalawak ng US at NATO allies ang mga sanctions laban sa Russia at pagtigil sa Nord Stream 2. Balak gawing EU member ang Ukraine. Kalkulasyon ng US at NATO na kung maging mabisa ang mga sanctions at pagbibigay ng military assistance sa Ukraine puedeng manghina hanggang mawala ang suporta ng mga Ruso kay Putin sa Rusya at manghihina ang mismong Russia.

Dahil sa high potential ng aggression ng US at NATO, nag-anunsiyo kaagad si Putin ng nuklear deterrent high alert. Pero hindi maging economically desperate si Putin dahil sa nakaraang dalawang dekada naayos niya ang agrikultura ng Russia at nakinabang sa oil and gas income. Mas malago ang consumer manufacturing ng Tsina kaysa sa Rusya at mula Tsina puedeng manggaling ang consumer manufactures para sa Russia. Handa rin ang Tsina na tanggapin niya ang gas supply mula Russia via Siberia, kapalit ng gas supply pipeline sa Nord Stream 2. Ibang usapin na kung ano ang magiging resulta sa umiigting na kontradiksyon ng US at Tsina.

Ibayong titibay ang relasyon ng Russia at Tsina sa pamamagitan ng BRI, Eurasian Economic Union, BRICS at SCO. Dahil sa intensipikasyon ng mga kontradiksyong inter-imperyalista, lululubha ang krisis ng pandaidigang sistema ng kapitalismo, lalaganap ang mga anti-imperyalista at demokratikong protesta ng masa at ito ay magiging transisyon sa muling pagsulong ng pandaigdigang rebolusyong proletaryo-sosyalista.

Kasama sa paglubha ng mga inter-imperyalistang kontradiksyon ang paglubha ng kontradiksyon ng kapital at paggawa sa mga bansang imperyalista, ang kontradiksyon sa pagitan ng mga imperyalistang poder (laluna sa pagitan ng mga pinakalamakas na mga imperyalistang US at Tsina), ang kontradiksyon ng mga imperyalista at mga inaaping bansa at mamamayan at kontradiksyon ng mga imperyalistang poder at mga bayang nanatili pang independyente (DPRK, Cuba, Vietnam, etc) at may mga hangaring sosyalista.

  1. Mayroon bang proletaryong Partido sa Ukraine at Russia? Ano ang mga hakbang na dapat gawin ng mga rebolusyonaryong Partido nakapaloob sa mga bansang ito? Ano kailangan ng mga proletaryong Partido at kilusang mapagpalaya sa iba’t ibang dako ng daigdig? Paano magagamit ng nakikibakang mamamayan ang tunggaliang ito sa kanyang bentahe?

JMS: Merong mga proletaryong Partido sa Ukraine at Russia. Dapat itaguyod at ipaglaban nila ang mga karapatan at interes ng proletaryado at sambayanan. Labanan nila ang monopolyo kapitalismo sa Ukraine at Rusya kaalinsabay ng wastong pagsusuri at ebalwasyon sa mga isyu hinggil sa mga bangayan at sabwatan ng mga imperyalistang poder.

Dapat ang mga proletaryong Partido at kilusang mapagpalaya magbuo at magsulong ng sariling lakas laban sa mga imperyalista at mga nagsasamanatalang uri sa iba’t ibang dako ng daigdig. Dapat isulong ng mamamayan ang pakikibaka para sa pambansang independensya, demokrasya at sosyalismo.

Kumplikado ang daigdig ngayon. Halimbawa sa Pilipinas, No. 1 na imperyalistang kaaway ang US pero ang imperyalistang Tsino naman ay kaaway din natin dahil sa inagaw sa atin ang West Philippine Sea at nandarambong sa ating likas yaman samantalang hindi nababago ang posisyon natin na may soberaniya ng Tsina sa Taiwan, Hongkong, Macau, Tibet, Chen Pao at Xinjiang. ###

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The Conflict In Ukraine
Anakpawis Discussion, Saturday, March 5, 2022 2 p.m. Utrecht time

Introductory Presentation

  1. Background: From Kievan Rus

In the 9th century, Kievan Rus became the cradle of the Russian race. The Russians descended from the Vikings also called Varangian. It was the bastion of Rurik and his dynasty which is considered the origin of the Russian race. But eventually more and more from the local tribes became Ukrainian whose language and culture were similar to Russian due to the interaction between the two nationalities.

In the 12th and 13th centuries the Mongols came to dominate the Russians and Ukrainians and complicating their history until the Russians became enemies with the Tatars. Cultural and racial inbreeding occurred between the Mongols and the Ukrainians who converted to Islam qand Ukraine became a caliphate. In the 15th century Moscow became the center of the Russians. The population had grown and their territory had increased. The feudal system flourished and Orthodox Christianity spread until capitalism emerged and Russia became a military-feudal imperialist.

  1. October Revolution up to the counteroffensive against Nazi Germany

The first inter-imperialist war, World War I, gave the Bolsheviks the favorable opportunity to wage revolution. They won in October 1917. One of the early republics the Bolsheviks established was Ukraine as well as Russia and Belarus. These three republics became the founders and core of the USSR which was established in 1922 when the Bolsheviks won the Civil War.
The scope of the Russian Czarist empire is also generally the scope of the USSR. After Lenin’s New Economic Policy, Stalin undertook the construction of socialist industry and the collectivization and mechanization of agriculture. The USSR became the target of Nazi Germany’s aggression in World War II. It occupied the USSR, killed 27 million and destroyed 85 percent of its industry. But the USSR prevailed and in the counter-offensive the fascist governments were overthrown as far as Berlin and laid the basis for additional socialist countries in Eastern Europe.

  1. Emergence of modern revisionism and restoration of capitalism After World War II, the US declared the Cold War against the USSR in 1948, formed NATO in 1949 and became aggressive, angered at the victory of the USSR, the proliferation of the socialist countries and the rise of national liberation movements. In 1955 the USSR and Eastern European countries established the Warsaw Pact as a counter to NATO. However, modern revisionism and the policies of the restoration of capitalism emerged under Khrushchov in 1956.

Revisionists up to Gorbachev and Yeltsin thought that if the USSR became capitalist, there would be an end to the Cold War, peace and the disappearance of the danger of nuclear war. When it turned fully capitalist, the USSR dissolved itself through the Minsk Agreement between Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. The agreement stipulates assurances from the US, NATO and the OSCE that former Warsaw Pact members would not be made NATO members and would not also threaten Russia’s borders.

  1. US and NATO violation of the 1991 Minsk Agreement

While Russia was still very weak due to the dissolution of the USSR and in chaos due to the total restoration of capitalism, the US and NATO seized the opportunity to completely destroy Yugoslavia, expand NATO to 14 countries as far as the borders of Russia, instigate unrest in Georgia and Chechnya and use so-called color revolutions to put Eastern Europe under the influence of the US and NATO.

The US spent USD 5 billion in Ukraine to support Bandera-type neo-Nazis or fascists to stage Maidan mass protests from 2013 until the bloody coup that toppled Yakunovich’s pro-Russian government in 2014. The new government attacked the Donbas region where Ukrainian Russians predominate and massacred Russians in the major cities of Ukraine.

  1. Russian and Russian Ukrainians Resistance to the Kyiv fascists

The Russian majority fought in the Donbas region until they established the people’s republics of Donetsk and Lugansk in accordance with the right to national self-detemination under international law. Russia provided limited support to them. But the big thing was to reclaim Crimea that Khrushchov had previously gifted to Ukraine in 1954 as a political stunt. Russians are a large majority here because of its attachment to and ownership of Russia for centuries. They held a referendum in 2014 to return Crimea to Russia.

The heroic and effective resistance of the people and the republic of Donbas against the fascists gave rise to the 2015 Minsk II Agreement for a ceasefire, recognizing the autonomy of the two people’s republics and having a line of contact so as to ban the bringing here of artillery and other powerful military equipment. However, the Kyiv government and fascists have ceaselessly attacked the Donbas region.

  1. Damage to the Russians in Ukraine and planned blitzkrieg

Upon US and NATO instigation, about 14,000 Russian Ukrainians have been killed by the fascists of the Kyiv regime from 2014 to 2022. Three million Russian Ukrainians have fled. Homes, factories, schools, hospitals and other civilian infrastructure of the Donbas have been repeatedly attacked. And Russian civilians have been massacred in apartments and neighborhoods in cities. The Russian population in Ukraine has dropped from 22 per cent in 2014 to 17 per cent at present.

Since last year, the US and NATO have hurried Ukraine to become a NATO member. Ukraine’s military was placed under NATO command and control. The military bases on the Russsian border have been increased and so have US and British military exercises and training of Ukrainian military. And Ukraine had a blitzkrieg plan against the Donbas region. Russia and the people’s republics of Donetsk and Lugansk became aware of all these.

Thus, Russia asked the US and NATO for guarantees not to make Ukraine a member of NATO in December 2021. But the US and NATO refused. The result: on February 21 Russia declared that it was recognizing the people’s republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, that they had a treaty of friendship, mutual security and defense and would launch a special military operation against Ukraine for its criminal violations of the Minsk Agreements.

Preliminary Questions From KMP:

  1. Will the conflict in Ukraine affect the price of oil in the Philippines which continues to rise due to the deregulation policy?

JMS: The the price of oil in the Philippines will be affected by the conflict in Ukraine and will still continue to rise due to the policy of deregulation or unhindered increase in the price by the monopoly suppliers of oil and gas to the Philippines.

There are no direct sanctions by the G-7, EU and NATO countries on oil and gas from Russia but there are sanctions hindering Russia’s financial transactions with banks and on shipping carrying oil and gas from Russia. Thus, the supply of oil and gas and its refined products to the international market will be significantly reduced. Due to energy scarcity as in the 1973 oil crisis, oil and gas prices will fly.

Russia is one of the largest oil and gas and refined products producer and supplier. Its daily production is 5.5 million barrels. Half of NATO countries are themselves Russia“s clients. With the blocking of supply from Russia to the world market, there will be a huge energy shortage and oil and gas prices from abroad will definitely increase.

  1. What are the direct and indirect effects of events in Ukraine on the lives and livelihood of Filipinos?

JMS: Even as we don’t get oil and gas from Russia, we are affected by price increases due to the oil and gas shortage in the world market. Oil-producing countries in the Middle East and US oil companies will take advantage to raise oil and gas prices that the Philippines is importing even though the US says it can supply shale oil to the EU due to its overproduction through fracking.

But even before the crisis and the conflict in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, we were affected by rising prices of many imported goods due to the large budget and foreign trade deficits of the Philippines, the rapid growth of public debt and debt payments. Therefore, we lack the money for the importation of tools and components for production and consumer products. The result is shortage of supply and price surges or inflation. This is a big problem now and in the future whoever is the president.

  1. Why should the position or stance of the Philippine government not be neutral in the conflict in Ukraine?

JMS: To my best knowledge, the Duterte regime does not yet have a clear policy position on the crisis and conflict in Ukraine. Is it neutral? Most likely, he will follow the US line, especially now that it is toadying up to the US because of the 2022 elections. I will not be surprised if it is pro-US and pro-NATO.

In general, all the imperialists and their puppet fascists are bad for the working people and we see that the US is the No.1 enemy and the others are only second. But we must be analytical of conflicts and collusions among the imperialists on various situations and issues. And we use international law to find out which imperialist is guilty of violations based on the concrete situation.

In Ukraine, the US and NATO were responsible for major crimes in colluding with the fascists of Ukraine in 2013 to 2014 to carry out the Maidan protests and staging a bloody coup to overthrow the elected pro-Russian government. After the US and NATO instigated their fascist puppets in Kyiv to attack the Russians in the Donbas region and in the cities, 14,000 Russian Ukrainians were massacred and 3 million were expelled in the past eight years.

Since last year, the US has pushed the Kyiv authorities to make Ukraine a NATO member. This is a violation of the 1991 Minsk Agreement which prohibits former members of the Warsaw Pact from joining NATO. And there was even a planned blitzkrieg against the people’s republic in the Donbas region. Zelensky has even said that he would retake Crimea by invasion. As a result, Russia planned and carried out a special military operation and the recognition of the people’s republic in the Donbas.

  1. How will the US, China and other imperialist countries benefit more from what is happening in Ukraine?

JMS: The US has succeeded in using Ukrainian fascists to place military installations inside Ukraine and Russia’s border and to provoke Russia to conduct special military operations. The US has strengthened its leadership and command in NATO and the EU has become compliant.

US monopolies will benefit because oil and gas supply from the US will replace Russian supply using Nord Stream 2 . The EU is the loser. That from Russia is cheaper and more stable. The US military-industrial complex will also benefit because its military production contracts will increase.

Only ten percent of Russia’s economy and trade will be affected as a result of the sanctions. By necessity, Russia-China relations will be strengthened. It is already planned that the gas that would have flowed into Nord Stream 2 will be transferred to the pipeline to China via Siberia. Russia’s food production is good. Where it is weak, as in consumer manufacturing, Russia can get all the necessary products from China. They will work more closely in the framework of the BRICS, BRI, Eurasian Economic Union and SCO. China will benefit the most among the imperialist powers because of the conflict in Ukraine.

For your reference:

Population and Economic Resources ng Ukraine:

It is the second-largest country by area in Europe by area and has a population of over 40 million – more than Poland.

Ukraine ranks:
🌐 1st in Europe in proven recoverable reserves of uranium ores;
🌐2nd place in Europe and 10th place in the world in terms of titanium ore reserves;
🌐2nd place in the world in terms of explored reserves of manganese ores (2.3 billion tons, or 12% of the world’s reserves);
🌐2nd largest iron ore reserves in the world (30 billion tons);
🌐2nd place in Europe in terms of mercury ore reserves;
🌐3rd place in Europe (13th place in the world) in shale gas reserves (22 trillion cubic meters)
🌐4th in the world by the total value of natural resources;
🌐7th place in the world in coal reserves (33.9 billion tons)

Ukraine is an important agricultural country:
🌐1st in Europe in terms of arable land area;
🌐3rd place in the world by the area of black soil (25% of world’s volume);
🌐1st place in the world in exports of sunflower and sunflower oil;
🌐2nd place in the world in barley production and 4th place in barley exports;
🌐3rd largest producer and 4th largest exporter of corn in the world;
🌐4th largest producer of potatoes in the world;
🌐5th largest rye producer in the world;
🌐5th place in the world in bee production (75,000 tons);
🌐8th place in the world in wheat exports;
🌐9th place in the world in the production of chicken eggs;
🌐16th place in the world in cheese exports.
Ukraine can meet the food needs of 600 million people.

Ukraine is an important industrialized country:
🌐1st in Europe in ammonia production;
Europe’s 2nd’s and the world’s 4th largest natural gas pipeline system;
🌐3rd largest in Europe and 8th largest in the world in terms of installed capacity of nuclear power plants;
🌐3rd place in Europe and 11th in the world in terms of rail network length (21,700 km);
🌐3rd place in the world (after the U.S. and France) in production of locators and locating equipment;
🌐3rd largest iron exporter in the world
🌐4th largest exporter of turbines for nuclear power plants in the world;
🌐4th world’s largest manufacturer of rocket launchers;
🌐4th place in the world in clay exports
🌐4th place in the world in titanium exports
🌐8th place in the world in exports of ores and concentrates;
🌐9th place in the world in exports of defense industry products;
🌐10th largest steel producer in the world (32.4 million tons).

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